{"ok":true,"service":"kelly-glass-lab","route":"/api/glass-lab/sector-dossier/weather_risk","generatedAt":"2026-07-08T07:06:56.157Z","readOnly":true,"mutationAllowed":false,"publicUserWriteAllowed":false,"id":"weather_risk","title":"Weather Risk Lab Proof Dossier","labTitle":"Weather Risk Lab","proofScore":{"score":70,"grade":"strong","sourceCoverage":100,"brainCoverage":100,"authorityVisible":false,"proofSurfaceCoverage":100,"readinessContribution":0,"interpretation":"Score combines source coverage, brain fleet health, visible authority evidence, proof links, readiness map, and doctrine coverage. It is a product proof score, not a promise of forecast accuracy."},"liveStatus":{"state":"warming_specialized_read_only","sourcePresentCount":7,"sourceCount":7,"brainFleetHealthy":4,"visibleAuthorityRows":0,"generatedHypotheses":0,"realityClosures":0,"marketFeedAvailable":null},"proofStory":["Weather Risk Lab is a read-only KELLY lens for Households, operators, municipalities, insurers, logistics teams, and local users watching weather risk.","KELLY is designed to win by being scoreable: every forecast should connect to source evidence, causal assumptions, falsifiers, settlement, calibration, replay, and memory lineage.","Current proof score is 70/100 (strong).","The lab currently has 7/7 source families wired or available and 0 visible authority rows.","Every location view should show source time, observed variables, forecast target, closure rule, and replay receipt."],"whatKellySees":{"audience":"Households, operators, municipalities, insurers, logistics teams, and local users watching weather risk.","primaryQuestion":"What environmental pressure is changing here, and what should KELLY watch until reality closes the loop?","sourcePlan":["No simulated source: wired","Open-Meteo: wired","Open-Meteo Air Quality: wired","National Weather Service: wired","OpenAQ: wired","NOAA CO-OPS Water Levels: wired","OpenAI: wired"],"causalNodes":["WEATHER:TEMP_2M","WEATHER:HUMIDITY","WEATHER:PRESSURE","WEATHER:WIND_SPEED","WEATHER:WIND_GUST","WEATHER:PRECIP_NOW","WEATHER:RAIN_NOW","WEATHER:SNOW_NOW","WEATHER:HAIL_RISK","AQ:PM25","AQ:PM10","AQ:OBSERVATION_DENSITY"],"causalEdges":["WEATHER:PRESSURE -> WEATHER:RISK","WEATHER:WIND_SPEED -> WEATHER:RISK","WEATHER:WIND_GUST -> WEATHER:RISK","WEATHER:PRECIP_NOW -> WEATHER:RISK","WEATHER:RAIN_NOW -> WEATHER:RISK","WEATHER:SNOW_NOW -> WEATHER:RISK","WEATHER:HAIL_RISK -> WEATHER:RISK","WEATHER:HUMIDITY -> WEATHER:PRECIP_NOW","AQ:PM25 -> WEATHER:RISK","AQ:PM10 -> WEATHER:RISK","AQ:OBSERVATION_DENSITY -> AQ:PM25"]},"howKellyForecasts":["Approved source intake only","Tag source, freshness, domain, and authority","The Book of Why: ask what caused the change, what would have happened otherwise, and what evidence can falsify the causal story","Thinking in Systems: map feedback loops, delays, stocks, flows, constraints, and downstream effects","Thinking, Fast and Slow: separate fast pattern recognition from slower deliberate verification","Superforecasting: start with base rates, update incrementally, keep probabilities explicit, and score the forecast later","Thinking in Bets: treat every forecast as a wager against reality with a clear settlement rule","Build causal pressure nodes and forecast cones","Separate KELLY forecast from user forecast","Track falsifiers, uncertainty, and competing explanations","Close against reality","Score calibration and error direction","Apply continuous micro-adjustments after settlement to improve future accuracy","Create replayable memory evidence when eligible"],"whatCouldChangeKellysMind":["Source coverage drops below current 7/7.","Brain fleet health drops below quorum from current 4/4.","Authority evidence or replay receipts fail to link from the lab proof surface.","Settlement and calibration records contradict the current forecast posture.","Fresh reality data changes the base rate or causal pressure map."],"proofLinks":[{"label":"authorityIndex","href":"/authority-index"},{"label":"competitiveProofLabs","href":"/advanced-proof-labs"},{"label":"agiReadiness","href":"/generality-evidence"},{"label":"brainFleet","href":"/api/brain-fleet"},{"label":"templates","href":"/api/sector-labs"}],"nextUsefulUpgrade":"Score combines source coverage, brain fleet health, visible authority evidence, proof links, readiness map, and doctrine coverage. It is a product proof score, not a promise of forecast accuracy.","boundary":{"readOnly":true,"publicUserWriteAllowed":false,"noAdviceSubstitute":"No emergency instruction replacement and no certainty from sparse sensors.","noClaimOfPerfectPrediction":true,"proofRequiredForEveryForecast":true}}