{"ok":true,"service":"kelly-glass-lab","route":"/api/glass-lab/sector-labs/earth_disaster","generatedAt":"2026-07-08T07:03:44.237Z","readOnly":true,"mutationAllowed":false,"publicUserWriteAllowed":false,"id":"earth_disaster","title":"Earth & Disaster Lab","template":{"id":"earth_disaster","label":"Earth & Disaster Lab","shortLabel":"Disaster","tagline":"Public hazard signals turned into bounded risk questions.","bestFor":"Showing shock detection, location-aware alerts, and source-of-truth boundaries.","safeClaim":"Shows earthquake, water-level, alert, and wildfire signals when public feeds are available.","blockedClaim":"No emergency guidance, no evacuation instruction, and no certainty from sparse sensors.","focusLabel":"Pick a location","focusQuestion":"Where should KELLY watch hazard risk?","questionLabel":"What hazard question are you asking?","responseNode":"DISASTER:RISK","sourceIds":["usgs-earthquakes","nws","noaa-water","nasa-firms"],"focusPresets":[{"id":"sf","label":"San Francisco","lat":37.7749,"lon":-122.4194,"radiusKm":500,"noaaStation":"9414290","riskType":"earthquake and coastal risk"},{"id":"los-angeles","label":"Los Angeles","lat":34.0522,"lon":-118.2437,"radiusKm":500,"noaaStation":"9410660","riskType":"earthquake and wildfire risk"},{"id":"miami","label":"Miami","lat":25.7617,"lon":-80.1918,"radiusKm":300,"noaaStation":"8723214","riskType":"coastal water and storm risk"},{"id":"seattle","label":"Seattle","lat":47.6062,"lon":-122.3321,"radiusKm":500,"noaaStation":"9447130","riskType":"earthquake and coastal risk"},{"id":"anchorage","label":"Anchorage","lat":61.2181,"lon":-149.9003,"radiusKm":750,"noaaStation":"9455920","riskType":"earthquake and coastal risk"}],"questionPresets":[{"id":"earthquake","label":"Earthquake","nodeId":"DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_PRESSURE","userQuestion":"Have nearby earthquakes changed risk?"},{"id":"alerts","label":"Official alerts","nodeId":"DISASTER:OFFICIAL_ALERTS","userQuestion":"Are official hazard alerts rising?"},{"id":"water","label":"Water level","nodeId":"DISASTER:WATER_LEVEL","userQuestion":"Is coastal water pressure rising?"},{"id":"wildfire","label":"Wildfire","nodeId":"DISASTER:FIRE_HOTSPOTS","userQuestion":"Are wildfire hotspots rising?"},{"id":"overall","label":"Overall risk","nodeId":"DISASTER:RISK","userQuestion":"Is overall hazard risk rising?"}],"defaultNodes":["DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_MAG","DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_RECENCY","DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_DEPTH_RISK","DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_PRESSURE","DISASTER:OFFICIAL_ALERTS","DISASTER:WATER_LEVEL","DISASTER:FIRE_HOTSPOTS","DISASTER:RISK"],"defaultEdges":["DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_MAG -> DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_PRESSURE","DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_RECENCY -> DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_PRESSURE","DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_DEPTH_RISK -> DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_PRESSURE","DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_PRESSURE -> DISASTER:RISK","DISASTER:OFFICIAL_ALERTS -> DISASTER:RISK","DISASTER:WATER_LEVEL -> DISASTER:RISK","DISASTER:FIRE_HOTSPOTS -> DISASTER:RISK"]},"persona":{"audience":"Risk, continuity, insurance, infrastructure, emergency-planning, and public situational-awareness users.","primaryQuestion":"Are public hazard signals increasing, and which causal chain is KELLY watching?","method":"Earthquake, water-level, wildfire, official alert, and geospatial context joined into bounded risk hypotheses.","proofPromise":"Every disaster view should show official source, location, risk node, freshness, and post-event closure.","liveApp":"/sector-labs/earth-disaster"},"advantage":{"headline":"Why KELLY can be stronger here","claim":"KELLY is designed to win by being scoreable: every forecast should connect to source evidence, causal assumptions, falsifiers, settlement, calibration, replay, and memory lineage.","whyItMatters":"A forecast platform is only as good as its ability to be wrong in public, adjust from reality, and improve the next forecast without hiding the chain.","whereProofLives":["Source plan: the approved feed rows on this page","Forecast method: the doctrine timeline on this page","Authority evidence: Authority Index and replay receipts","Score evidence: settlement and calibration records","System evidence: Brain Fleet, generality evidence, and advanced proof labs"],"superiorityBoundary":"KELLY should be called better only where its scorecards, calibration, replay receipts, and source coverage outperform alternatives. This page is built to make that measurable.","sectorEdge":"Shows earthquake, water-level, alert, and wildfire signals when public feeds are available."},"uxPatterns":["Hazard operations pattern: map, official alerts, event timeline, and uncertainty band stay visible.","Preparedness pattern: show signals and boundaries without replacing emergency authorities.","Citation-forward answer pattern: put sources and proof next to claims.","Forecasting track-record pattern: keep probability, resolution rule, score, and history together.","Watchlist pattern: let users inspect a saved set without writing ground truth.","Alert/status pattern: show what changed, what is stale, and what KELLY is watching."],"researchReferences":[{"name":"TradingView","url":"https://www.tradingview.com/features/","lesson":"Charts, alerts, screeners, replay, multi-chart layouts, and fast command/search patterns make market work feel immediate."},{"name":"Metaculus","url":"https://www.metaculus.com/faq/","lesson":"Forecast questions need clear resolution rules, track records, scoring, calibration, and aggregation history."},{"name":"Windy / Windy.app","url":"https://windy.app/","lesson":"Weather users need maps, layers, local points, alerts, history, model comparison, and fast location context."},{"name":"Perplexity","url":"https://www.perplexity.ai/help-center/en/articles/10352895-how-does-perplexity-work.html","lesson":"Answer users expect citations beside claims, follow-up context, and checkable source trails."}],"liveStatus":{"state":"warming_specialized_read_only","sourcePresentCount":5,"sourceCount":5,"brainFleetHealthy":4,"visibleAuthorityRows":0,"generatedHypotheses":0,"realityClosures":0,"marketFeedAvailable":null},"sources":[{"id":"nws","label":"National Weather Service","cost":"free_no_key","keyName":"NWS_USER_AGENT","present":true,"note":"US forecast grid and alerts. Requires a responsible User-Agent string, not an API token. Outside U.S. coverage returns no coverage."},{"id":"usgs-earthquakes","label":"USGS Earthquake Feeds","cost":"free_no_key","keyName":null,"present":true,"note":"Real earthquake event feed. Good for shock/event learning and disaster template demos."},{"id":"noaa-water","label":"NOAA CO-OPS Water Levels","cost":"free_no_key","keyName":null,"present":true,"note":"Water-level/tide observations when a station is configured."},{"id":"nasa-firms","label":"NASA FIRMS","cost":"free_key","keyName":"NASA_FIRMS_MAP_KEY","present":true,"note":"Wildfire hotspot feed. Optional key-based environmental shock source."},{"id":"openai","label":"OpenAI","cost":"paid_optional","keyName":"OPENAI_API_KEY","present":true,"note":"Only for narrative phrasing. The proof engine does not require an LLM."}],"forecastMethod":["Approved source intake only","Tag source, freshness, domain, and authority","The Book of Why: ask what caused the change, what would have happened otherwise, and what evidence can falsify the causal story","Thinking in Systems: map feedback loops, delays, stocks, flows, constraints, and downstream effects","Thinking, Fast and Slow: separate fast pattern recognition from slower deliberate verification","Superforecasting: start with base rates, update incrementally, keep probabilities explicit, and score the forecast later","Thinking in Bets: treat every forecast as a wager against reality with a clear settlement rule","Build causal pressure nodes and forecast cones","Separate KELLY forecast from user forecast","Track falsifiers, uncertainty, and competing explanations","Close against reality","Score calibration and error direction","Apply continuous micro-adjustments after settlement to improve future accuracy","Create replayable memory evidence when eligible"],"proofSurfaces":{"authorityIndex":"/authority-index","competitiveProofLabs":"/advanced-proof-labs","agiReadiness":"/generality-evidence","brainFleet":"/api/brain-fleet","templates":"/api/sector-labs","marketSummary":null},"metrics":{"visibleCells":0,"authorityCoverage":null,"readinessScore":0,"brainFleetHealthy":4,"sourcePresentCount":5,"sourceCount":5},"marketSummary":null,"boundary":{"readOnly":true,"publicUserWriteAllowed":false,"noAdviceSubstitute":"No emergency guidance, no evacuation instruction, and no certainty from sparse sensors.","noClaimOfPerfectPrediction":true,"proofRequiredForEveryForecast":true},"proofScore":{"score":70,"grade":"strong","sourceCoverage":100,"brainCoverage":100,"authorityVisible":false,"proofSurfaceCoverage":100,"readinessContribution":0,"interpretation":"Score combines source coverage, brain fleet health, visible authority evidence, proof links, readiness map, and doctrine coverage. It is a product proof score, not a promise of forecast accuracy."}}