{"ok":true,"service":"kelly-glass-lab","route":"/api/glass-lab/sector-labs/energy_climate","generatedAt":"2026-07-08T07:06:23.353Z","readOnly":true,"mutationAllowed":false,"publicUserWriteAllowed":false,"id":"energy_climate","title":"Energy & Climate Lab","template":{"id":"energy_climate","label":"Energy & Climate Lab","shortLabel":"Energy","tagline":"Energy, emissions, weather, and infrastructure pressure as causal forecast lanes.","bestFor":"Showing KELLY linking climate/energy signals to delayed effects and source-backed scenarios.","safeClaim":"Shows energy pressure, carbon intensity context, weather shocks, and macro-energy relationships.","blockedClaim":"No policy instruction, no climate certainty from single feeds, and no investment advice.","focusLabel":"Pick an energy system","focusQuestion":"Which energy or climate signal should KELLY watch?","questionLabel":"What energy/climate question are you asking?","responseNode":null,"sourceIds":[],"focusPresets":[{"id":"carbon_intensity","label":"Carbon intensity","riskType":"grid emissions context"},{"id":"eia_energy","label":"EIA energy","riskType":"energy inventory and price pressure"},{"id":"nasa_weather","label":"NASA/NOAA","riskType":"environmental shock context"},{"id":"fred_energy","label":"FRED energy macro","riskType":"macro-energy pressure"}],"questionPresets":[{"id":"grid_pressure","label":"Grid pressure","nodeId":"ENERGY:GRID_PRESSURE","userQuestion":"Is grid pressure rising?"},{"id":"emissions","label":"Emissions","nodeId":"ENERGY:CARBON_INTENSITY","userQuestion":"Is carbon intensity changing?"},{"id":"energy_prices","label":"Energy prices","nodeId":"ENERGY:PRICE_PRESSURE","userQuestion":"Will energy price pressure rise?"},{"id":"shock","label":"Weather shock","nodeId":"ENERGY:WEATHER_SHOCK","userQuestion":"Could weather shock energy demand?"}],"defaultNodes":["ENERGY:CARBON_INTENSITY","ENERGY:PRICE_PRESSURE","ENERGY:WEATHER_SHOCK","ENERGY:DEMAND","ENERGY:RISK"],"defaultEdges":["ENERGY:WEATHER_SHOCK -> ENERGY:DEMAND","ENERGY:DEMAND -> ENERGY:PRICE_PRESSURE","ENERGY:CARBON_INTENSITY -> ENERGY:RISK"]},"persona":{"audience":"Showing KELLY linking climate/energy signals to delayed effects and source-backed scenarios.","primaryQuestion":"Which energy or climate signal should KELLY watch?","method":"Shows energy pressure, carbon intensity context, weather shocks, and macro-energy relationships. KELLY routes this through tagged intake, causal pressure nodes, forecast lanes, settlement, calibration, and replayable memory evidence.","proofPromise":"Every useful view should expose source provenance, causal node, settlement rule, calibration result, and replay/memory eligibility when available.","liveApp":"/sector-labs/energy-climate"},"advantage":{"headline":"Why KELLY can be stronger here","claim":"KELLY is designed to win by being scoreable: every forecast should connect to source evidence, causal assumptions, falsifiers, settlement, calibration, replay, and memory lineage.","whyItMatters":"A forecast platform is only as good as its ability to be wrong in public, adjust from reality, and improve the next forecast without hiding the chain.","whereProofLives":["Source plan: the approved feed rows on this page","Forecast method: the doctrine timeline on this page","Authority evidence: Authority Index and replay receipts","Score evidence: settlement and calibration records","System evidence: Brain Fleet, generality evidence, and advanced proof labs"],"superiorityBoundary":"KELLY should be called better only where its scorecards, calibration, replay receipts, and source coverage outperform alternatives. This page is built to make that measurable.","sectorEdge":"Shows energy pressure, carbon intensity context, weather shocks, and macro-energy relationships."},"uxPatterns":["Citation-forward answer pattern: put sources and proof next to claims.","Forecasting track-record pattern: keep probability, resolution rule, score, and history together.","Watchlist pattern: let users inspect a saved set without writing ground truth.","Alert/status pattern: show what changed, what is stale, and what KELLY is watching."],"researchReferences":[{"name":"TradingView","url":"https://www.tradingview.com/features/","lesson":"Charts, alerts, screeners, replay, multi-chart layouts, and fast command/search patterns make market work feel immediate."},{"name":"Metaculus","url":"https://www.metaculus.com/faq/","lesson":"Forecast questions need clear resolution rules, track records, scoring, calibration, and aggregation history."},{"name":"Windy / Windy.app","url":"https://windy.app/","lesson":"Weather users need maps, layers, local points, alerts, history, model comparison, and fast location context."},{"name":"Perplexity","url":"https://www.perplexity.ai/help-center/en/articles/10352895-how-does-perplexity-work.html","lesson":"Answer users expect citations beside claims, follow-up context, and checkable source trails."}],"liveStatus":{"state":"warming_specialized_read_only","sourcePresentCount":3,"sourceCount":4,"brainFleetHealthy":4,"visibleAuthorityRows":0,"generatedHypotheses":0,"realityClosures":0,"marketFeedAvailable":null},"sources":[{"id":"carbon-intensity","label":"Carbon Intensity API","cost":"free_no_key","keyName":null,"present":true,"note":"Grid carbon intensity context where available."},{"id":"eia","label":"EIA","cost":"free_key","keyName":"EIA_API_KEY","present":true,"note":"Energy inventory, generation, and price data."},{"id":"fred","label":"FRED","cost":"free_key","keyName":"FRED_API_KEY","present":true,"note":"Macro-economic energy series."},{"id":"noaa-nasa","label":"NOAA / NASA","cost":"free_mixed","keyName":"NASA_API_KEY","present":false,"note":"Weather, climate, and environmental context."}],"forecastMethod":["Approved source intake only","Tag source, freshness, domain, and authority","The Book of Why: ask what caused the change, what would have happened otherwise, and what evidence can falsify the causal story","Thinking in Systems: map feedback loops, delays, stocks, flows, constraints, and downstream effects","Thinking, Fast and Slow: separate fast pattern recognition from slower deliberate verification","Superforecasting: start with base rates, update incrementally, keep probabilities explicit, and score the forecast later","Thinking in Bets: treat every forecast as a wager against reality with a clear settlement rule","Build causal pressure nodes and forecast cones","Separate KELLY forecast from user forecast","Track falsifiers, uncertainty, and competing explanations","Close against reality","Score calibration and error direction","Apply continuous micro-adjustments after settlement to improve future accuracy","Create replayable memory evidence when eligible"],"proofSurfaces":{"authorityIndex":"/authority-index","competitiveProofLabs":"/advanced-proof-labs","agiReadiness":"/generality-evidence","brainFleet":"/api/brain-fleet","templates":"/api/sector-labs","marketSummary":null},"metrics":{"visibleCells":0,"authorityCoverage":null,"readinessScore":0,"brainFleetHealthy":4,"sourcePresentCount":3,"sourceCount":4},"marketSummary":null,"boundary":{"readOnly":true,"publicUserWriteAllowed":false,"noAdviceSubstitute":"No policy instruction, no climate certainty from single feeds, and no investment advice.","noClaimOfPerfectPrediction":true,"proofRequiredForEveryForecast":true},"proofScore":{"score":64,"grade":"building","sourceCoverage":75,"brainCoverage":100,"authorityVisible":false,"proofSurfaceCoverage":100,"readinessContribution":0,"interpretation":"Score combines source coverage, brain fleet health, visible authority evidence, proof links, readiness map, and doctrine coverage. It is a product proof score, not a promise of forecast accuracy."}}