{"ok":true,"service":"kelly-glass-lab","route":"/api/glass-lab/sector-labs/macro_pressure","generatedAt":"2026-07-08T07:00:22.084Z","readOnly":true,"mutationAllowed":false,"publicUserWriteAllowed":false,"id":"macro_pressure","title":"Macro Pressure Lab","template":{"id":"macro_pressure","label":"Macro Pressure Lab","shortLabel":"Macro","tagline":"Slow public economic signals explained as pressure, not predictions.","bestFor":"Showing reference-class learning across economies without trading advice.","safeClaim":"Shows inflation, labor, rates, growth, and energy pressure from public macro feeds.","blockedClaim":"No recession certainty, no policy prediction, no trade instruction.","focusLabel":"Pick a country","focusQuestion":"Which economy should KELLY watch?","questionLabel":"What macro question are you asking?","responseNode":"MACRO:RISK","sourceIds":["world-bank","bls","fred","eia","nasdaq-data-link"],"focusPresets":[{"id":"us","label":"United States","country":"US","blsCountry":"US"},{"id":"cn","label":"China","country":"CN"},{"id":"ca","label":"Canada","country":"CA"},{"id":"gb","label":"United Kingdom","country":"GB"},{"id":"de","label":"Germany","country":"DE"},{"id":"jp","label":"Japan","country":"JP"}],"questionPresets":[{"id":"inflation","label":"Inflation","nodeId":"MACRO:INFLATION","userQuestion":"Is inflation pressure rising?"},{"id":"jobs","label":"Jobs","nodeId":"MACRO:UNEMPLOYMENT","userQuestion":"Is labor pressure rising?"},{"id":"rates","label":"Rates","nodeId":"MACRO:RATES","userQuestion":"Are rates pressuring the system?"},{"id":"growth","label":"Growth","nodeId":"MACRO:GDP_GROWTH","userQuestion":"Is growth weakening?"},{"id":"energy","label":"Energy","nodeId":"MACRO:ENERGY_PRESSURE","userQuestion":"Is energy pressure rising?"},{"id":"fed_assets","label":"Fed total assets","nodeId":"MACRO:FED_TOTAL_ASSETS","userQuestion":"What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve?"},{"id":"coal_capacity","label":"Coal capacity (GEM)","nodeId":"MACRO:COAL_CAPACITY_CHANGE","userQuestion":"What will be the net change in coal-fired power capacity according to GEM?"},{"id":"fao_cereals_index","label":"FAO Cereals Index","nodeId":"MACRO:FAO_CEREALS_PRICE_INDEX","userQuestion":"What will be the FAO Cereals Price Index?"}],"defaultNodes":["MACRO:INFLATION","MACRO:UNEMPLOYMENT","MACRO:RATES","MACRO:GDP_GROWTH","MACRO:ENERGY_PRESSURE","MACRO:FED_TOTAL_ASSETS","MACRO:COAL_CAPACITY_CHANGE","MACRO:FAO_CEREALS_PRICE_INDEX","MACRO:US_FY_FEDERAL_OUTLAYS","MACRO:RISK"],"defaultEdges":["MACRO:INFLATION -> MACRO:RISK","MACRO:UNEMPLOYMENT -> MACRO:RISK","MACRO:RATES -> MACRO:RISK","MACRO:GDP_GROWTH -> MACRO:RISK","MACRO:ENERGY_PRESSURE -> MACRO:INFLATION","MACRO:FED_TOTAL_ASSETS -> MACRO:RATES","MACRO:COAL_CAPACITY_CHANGE -> MACRO:ENERGY_PRESSURE"]},"persona":{"audience":"Analysts, business owners, investors, policy watchers, and users who need slow-signal economic context.","primaryQuestion":"Which macro pressures are changing, and what historical reference class does KELLY use?","method":"Public economic time series, pressure nodes, lagged effects, historical base rates, scenario lanes, closure when data updates.","proofPromise":"Every macro view should show series id, observation date, source authority, pressure change, and calibration trail.","liveApp":"/sector-labs/macro-pressure"},"advantage":{"headline":"Why KELLY can be stronger here","claim":"KELLY is designed to win by being scoreable: every forecast should connect to source evidence, causal assumptions, falsifiers, settlement, calibration, replay, and memory lineage.","whyItMatters":"A forecast platform is only as good as its ability to be wrong in public, adjust from reality, and improve the next forecast without hiding the chain.","whereProofLives":["Source plan: the approved feed rows on this page","Forecast method: the doctrine timeline on this page","Authority evidence: Authority Index and replay receipts","Score evidence: settlement and calibration records","System evidence: Brain Fleet, generality evidence, and advanced proof labs"],"superiorityBoundary":"KELLY should be called better only where its scorecards, calibration, replay receipts, and source coverage outperform alternatives. This page is built to make that measurable.","sectorEdge":"Shows inflation, labor, rates, growth, and energy pressure from public macro feeds."},"uxPatterns":["Economic terminal pattern: series, observation date, revision risk, and lagged effects stay visible.","Scenario pattern: base rate, upside/downside, falsifiers, and next data release are explicit.","Citation-forward answer pattern: put sources and proof next to claims.","Forecasting track-record pattern: keep probability, resolution rule, score, and history together.","Watchlist pattern: let users inspect a saved set without writing ground truth.","Alert/status pattern: show what changed, what is stale, and what KELLY is watching."],"researchReferences":[{"name":"TradingView","url":"https://www.tradingview.com/features/","lesson":"Charts, alerts, screeners, replay, multi-chart layouts, and fast command/search patterns make market work feel immediate."},{"name":"Metaculus","url":"https://www.metaculus.com/faq/","lesson":"Forecast questions need clear resolution rules, track records, scoring, calibration, and aggregation history."},{"name":"Windy / Windy.app","url":"https://windy.app/","lesson":"Weather users need maps, layers, local points, alerts, history, model comparison, and fast location context."},{"name":"Perplexity","url":"https://www.perplexity.ai/help-center/en/articles/10352895-how-does-perplexity-work.html","lesson":"Answer users expect citations beside claims, follow-up context, and checkable source trails."}],"liveStatus":{"state":"warming_specialized_read_only","sourcePresentCount":2,"sourceCount":6,"brainFleetHealthy":0,"visibleAuthorityRows":0,"generatedHypotheses":0,"realityClosures":0,"marketFeedAvailable":null},"sources":[{"id":"world-bank","label":"World Bank Indicators","cost":"free_no_key","keyName":null,"present":true,"note":"No-key country macro indicators. Slow-moving context, not a live trading signal."},{"id":"bls","label":"BLS Public Data API","cost":"free_limited","keyName":"BLS_API_KEY","present":false,"note":"Labor and CPI time series. Key is optional for this showcase; public no-key calls are rate limited."},{"id":"fred","label":"FRED","cost":"free_key","keyName":"FRED_API_KEY","present":false,"note":"Federal Reserve economic time series. Requires a free API key."},{"id":"eia","label":"EIA","cost":"free_key","keyName":"EIA_API_KEY","present":false,"note":"Energy price/inventory pressure. Optional key-based macro feed."},{"id":"nasdaq-data-link","label":"Nasdaq Data Link","cost":"free_key","keyName":"QUANDL_API_KEY","present":false,"note":"Quandl/Nasdaq Data Link financial and FRED macro series. Set QUANDL_API_KEY or NASDAQ_DATA_API_KEY."},{"id":"openai","label":"OpenAI","cost":"paid_optional","keyName":"OPENAI_API_KEY","present":true,"note":"Only for narrative phrasing. The proof engine does not require an LLM."}],"forecastMethod":["Approved source intake only","Tag source, freshness, domain, and authority","The Book of Why: ask what caused the change, what would have happened otherwise, and what evidence can falsify the causal story","Thinking in Systems: map feedback loops, delays, stocks, flows, constraints, and downstream effects","Thinking, Fast and Slow: separate fast pattern recognition from slower deliberate verification","Superforecasting: start with base rates, update incrementally, keep probabilities explicit, and score the forecast later","Thinking in Bets: treat every forecast as a wager against reality with a clear settlement rule","Build causal pressure nodes and forecast cones","Separate KELLY forecast from user forecast","Track falsifiers, uncertainty, and competing explanations","Close against reality","Score calibration and error direction","Apply continuous micro-adjustments after settlement to improve future accuracy","Create replayable memory evidence when eligible"],"proofSurfaces":{"authorityIndex":"/authority-index","competitiveProofLabs":"/advanced-proof-labs","agiReadiness":"/generality-evidence","brainFleet":"/api/brain-fleet","templates":"/api/sector-labs","marketSummary":null},"metrics":{"visibleCells":0,"authorityCoverage":null,"readinessScore":0,"brainFleetHealthy":0,"sourcePresentCount":2,"sourceCount":6},"marketSummary":null,"boundary":{"readOnly":true,"publicUserWriteAllowed":false,"noAdviceSubstitute":"No recession certainty, no policy prediction, no trade instruction.","noClaimOfPerfectPrediction":true,"proofRequiredForEveryForecast":true},"proofScore":{"score":33,"grade":"early","sourceCoverage":33,"brainCoverage":0,"authorityVisible":false,"proofSurfaceCoverage":100,"readinessContribution":0,"interpretation":"Score combines source coverage, brain fleet health, visible authority evidence, proof links, readiness map, and doctrine coverage. It is a product proof score, not a promise of forecast accuracy."}}