{"ok":true,"service":"kelly-glass-lab","route":"/api/glass-lab/sector-labs/markets","generatedAt":"2026-07-08T06:59:54.336Z","readOnly":true,"mutationAllowed":false,"publicUserWriteAllowed":false,"id":"markets","title":"Markets Lab","template":{"id":"markets","label":"Markets Lab","shortLabel":"Markets Lab","tagline":"Decision support with proof-of-edge boundaries.","bestFor":"Current Causalea/KELLY product.","safeClaim":"Shows transparent market decisions, uncertainty, falsifiers, and measured track record.","blockedClaim":"No financial advice, no guaranteed profit, no causal truth from price correlation alone.","focusLabel":"Pick a stock or crypto","focusQuestion":"What stock or crypto are we looking at?","questionLabel":"What decision are you considering?","responseNode":null,"sourceIds":[],"focusPresets":[{"id":"aapl","label":"Apple","symbol":"AAPL","assetType":"stock"},{"id":"nvda","label":"Nvidia","symbol":"NVDA","assetType":"stock"},{"id":"tsla","label":"Tesla","symbol":"TSLA","assetType":"stock"},{"id":"msft","label":"Microsoft","symbol":"MSFT","assetType":"stock"},{"id":"amzn","label":"Amazon","symbol":"AMZN","assetType":"stock"},{"id":"meta","label":"Meta","symbol":"META","assetType":"stock"},{"id":"owl","label":"Blue Owl Capital","symbol":"OWL","assetType":"stock"},{"id":"spy","label":"S&P 500 ETF","symbol":"SPY","assetType":"etf"}],"questionPresets":[{"id":"buy","label":"Buy","userQuestion":"Should I buy it?"},{"id":"sell","label":"Sell","userQuestion":"Should I sell it?"},{"id":"wait","label":"Wait","userQuestion":"Should I wait?"},{"id":"eod","label":"Next close","userQuestion":"What is KELLY's next end-of-day forecast?"},{"id":"market_cap","label":"Market cap","nodeId":"MARKET:OWL:MARKET_CAP","userQuestion":"What will be the closing market capitalization?"},{"id":"risk","label":"Risk check","userQuestion":"What could go wrong?"},{"id":"proof","label":"Can I trust it?","userQuestion":"Can I trust this yet?"}],"defaultNodes":["MOMENTUM","VOLUME","SENTIMENT","MACRO","RISK","DECISION"],"defaultEdges":["MOMENTUM -> DECISION","VOLUME -> MOMENTUM","SENTIMENT -> DECISION","MACRO -> RISK","RISK -> DECISION"]},"persona":{"audience":"Investors, analysts, founders, and everyday users who want transparent market decision support.","primaryQuestion":"What does KELLY forecast next, what could make it wrong, and how will reality score it?","method":"Price history, macro pressure, event context, sentiment/noise separation, forecast cone, paper P&L, settlement, calibration.","proofPromise":"Every useful market view should attach source snapshots, forecast receipt, settlement rule, and calibration trail.","liveApp":"https://markets-lab-production.up.railway.app"},"advantage":{"headline":"Why KELLY can be stronger here","claim":"KELLY is designed to win by being scoreable: every forecast should connect to source evidence, causal assumptions, falsifiers, settlement, calibration, replay, and memory lineage.","whyItMatters":"A forecast platform is only as good as its ability to be wrong in public, adjust from reality, and improve the next forecast without hiding the chain.","whereProofLives":["Source plan: the approved feed rows on this page","Forecast method: the doctrine timeline on this page","Authority evidence: Authority Index and replay receipts","Score evidence: settlement and calibration records","System evidence: Brain Fleet, generality evidence, and advanced proof labs"],"superiorityBoundary":"KELLY should be called better only where its scorecards, calibration, replay receipts, and source coverage outperform alternatives. This page is built to make that measurable.","sectorEdge":"Shows transparent market decisions, uncertainty, falsifiers, and measured track record."},"uxPatterns":["Market workstation pattern: symbol switching, watchlist, chart layers, and paper P&L need to be one glance away.","Screener pattern: rank assets by conditions, then inspect the chain for one symbol.","Citation-forward answer pattern: put sources and proof next to claims.","Forecasting track-record pattern: keep probability, resolution rule, score, and history together.","Watchlist pattern: let users inspect a saved set without writing ground truth.","Alert/status pattern: show what changed, what is stale, and what KELLY is watching."],"researchReferences":[{"name":"TradingView","url":"https://www.tradingview.com/features/","lesson":"Charts, alerts, screeners, replay, multi-chart layouts, and fast command/search patterns make market work feel immediate."},{"name":"Metaculus","url":"https://www.metaculus.com/faq/","lesson":"Forecast questions need clear resolution rules, track records, scoring, calibration, and aggregation history."},{"name":"Windy / Windy.app","url":"https://windy.app/","lesson":"Weather users need maps, layers, local points, alerts, history, model comparison, and fast location context."},{"name":"Perplexity","url":"https://www.perplexity.ai/help-center/en/articles/10352895-how-does-perplexity-work.html","lesson":"Answer users expect citations beside claims, follow-up context, and checkable source trails."}],"liveStatus":{"state":"warming_specialized_read_only","sourcePresentCount":4,"sourceCount":9,"brainFleetHealthy":0,"visibleAuthorityRows":0,"generatedHypotheses":0,"realityClosures":0,"marketFeedAvailable":false},"sources":[{"id":"synthetic-none","label":"No simulated source","cost":"none","keyName":null,"present":true,"note":"The engine can run manual ticks without any external API key."},{"id":"yahoo-chart","label":"Yahoo public chart","cost":"free_no_key","keyName":null,"present":true,"note":"Free public chart endpoint used as the default Markets Lab feed."},{"id":"finnhub","label":"Finnhub paid overlay","cost":"paid_optional","keyName":"FINNHUB_API_KEY","present":false,"note":"Optional only. The free key can expire or be too limited; Markets Lab does not depend on it."},{"id":"sec-edgar","label":"SEC EDGAR","cost":"free_no_key","keyName":"SEC_USER_AGENT","present":false,"note":"Company filing metadata. Requires a responsible User-Agent string, not an API token."},{"id":"fred","label":"FRED","cost":"free_key","keyName":"FRED_API_KEY","present":false,"note":"Federal Reserve economic time series. Requires a free API key."},{"id":"coingecko","label":"CoinGecko","cost":"free_limited","keyName":"COINGECKO_DEMO_API_KEY","present":false,"note":"Crypto price and 24-hour change. Demo key is optional; public access is rate limited."},{"id":"stooq","label":"Stooq","cost":"free_no_key","keyName":null,"present":true,"note":"Free market CSV backup for equities and ETFs when symbol mapping is available."},{"id":"nasdaq-data-link","label":"Nasdaq Data Link","cost":"free_key","keyName":"QUANDL_API_KEY","present":false,"note":"Quandl/Nasdaq Data Link financial and FRED macro series. Set QUANDL_API_KEY or NASDAQ_DATA_API_KEY."},{"id":"openai","label":"OpenAI","cost":"paid_optional","keyName":"OPENAI_API_KEY","present":true,"note":"Only for narrative phrasing. The proof engine does not require an LLM."}],"forecastMethod":["Approved source intake only","Tag source, freshness, domain, and authority","The Book of Why: ask what caused the change, what would have happened otherwise, and what evidence can falsify the causal story","Thinking in Systems: map feedback loops, delays, stocks, flows, constraints, and downstream effects","Thinking, Fast and Slow: separate fast pattern recognition from slower deliberate verification","Superforecasting: start with base rates, update incrementally, keep probabilities explicit, and score the forecast later","Thinking in Bets: treat every forecast as a wager against reality with a clear settlement rule","Build causal pressure nodes and forecast cones","Separate KELLY forecast from user forecast","Track falsifiers, uncertainty, and competing explanations","Close against reality","Score calibration and error direction","Apply continuous micro-adjustments after settlement to improve future accuracy","Create replayable memory evidence when eligible"],"proofSurfaces":{"authorityIndex":"/authority-index","competitiveProofLabs":"/advanced-proof-labs","agiReadiness":"/generality-evidence","brainFleet":"/api/brain-fleet","templates":"/api/sector-labs","marketSummary":"/api/glass-lab/markets-summary"},"metrics":{"visibleCells":0,"authorityCoverage":null,"readinessScore":0,"brainFleetHealthy":0,"sourcePresentCount":4,"sourceCount":9},"marketSummary":{"ok":false,"error":"sector_market_summary_timeout"},"boundary":{"readOnly":true,"publicUserWriteAllowed":false,"noAdviceSubstitute":"No financial advice, no guaranteed profit, no causal truth from price correlation alone.","noClaimOfPerfectPrediction":true,"proofRequiredForEveryForecast":true},"proofScore":{"score":36,"grade":"early","sourceCoverage":44,"brainCoverage":0,"authorityVisible":false,"proofSurfaceCoverage":100,"readinessContribution":0,"interpretation":"Score combines source coverage, brain fleet health, visible authority evidence, proof links, readiness map, and doctrine coverage. It is a product proof score, not a promise of forecast accuracy."}}