{"ok":true,"service":"kelly-glass-lab","route":"/api/glass-lab/sector-labs/policy_government","generatedAt":"2026-07-08T07:16:52.673Z","readOnly":true,"mutationAllowed":false,"publicUserWriteAllowed":false,"id":"policy_government","title":"Policy & Government Lab","template":{"id":"policy_government","label":"Policy & Government Lab","shortLabel":"Policy","tagline":"Public decisions, money flows, elections, and regulation as forecastable reality loops.","bestFor":"Showing KELLY turning official public records into watchable policy hypotheses.","safeClaim":"Shows public policy signals, government spending, election context, and regulatory change pressure.","blockedClaim":"No legal advice, lobbying instruction, election manipulation, or certainty about political outcomes.","focusLabel":"Pick a public system","focusQuestion":"Which public decision system should KELLY watch?","questionLabel":"What policy question are you asking?","responseNode":null,"sourceIds":[],"focusPresets":[{"id":"federal_register","label":"Federal Register","riskType":"rules and notices"},{"id":"usaspending","label":"USAspending","riskType":"federal spending flows"},{"id":"fec","label":"FEC","riskType":"campaign finance signals"},{"id":"datausa","label":"Data USA","riskType":"regional economic context"}],"questionPresets":[{"id":"regulatory_pressure","label":"Regulatory pressure","nodeId":"POLICY:REGULATORY_PRESSURE","userQuestion":"Is regulatory pressure rising?"},{"id":"spending_shift","label":"Spending shift","nodeId":"POLICY:SPENDING_SHIFT","userQuestion":"Where is public spending moving?"},{"id":"election_pressure","label":"Election pressure","nodeId":"POLICY:ELECTION_PRESSURE","userQuestion":"What changed in the election signal?"},{"id":"regional_context","label":"Regional context","nodeId":"POLICY:REGIONAL_CONTEXT","userQuestion":"What local public data matters?"}],"defaultNodes":["POLICY:PUBLIC_RECORDS","POLICY:MONEY_FLOW","POLICY:REGULATION","POLICY:ELECTION_PRESSURE","POLICY:RISK"],"defaultEdges":["POLICY:PUBLIC_RECORDS -> POLICY:REGULATION","POLICY:MONEY_FLOW -> POLICY:RISK","POLICY:ELECTION_PRESSURE -> POLICY:RISK"]},"persona":{"audience":"Showing KELLY turning official public records into watchable policy hypotheses.","primaryQuestion":"Which public decision system should KELLY watch?","method":"Shows public policy signals, government spending, election context, and regulatory change pressure. KELLY routes this through tagged intake, causal pressure nodes, forecast lanes, settlement, calibration, and replayable memory evidence.","proofPromise":"Every useful view should expose source provenance, causal node, settlement rule, calibration result, and replay/memory eligibility when available.","liveApp":"/sector-labs/policy-government"},"advantage":{"headline":"Why KELLY can be stronger here","claim":"KELLY is designed to win by being scoreable: every forecast should connect to source evidence, causal assumptions, falsifiers, settlement, calibration, replay, and memory lineage.","whyItMatters":"A forecast platform is only as good as its ability to be wrong in public, adjust from reality, and improve the next forecast without hiding the chain.","whereProofLives":["Source plan: the approved feed rows on this page","Forecast method: the doctrine timeline on this page","Authority evidence: Authority Index and replay receipts","Score evidence: settlement and calibration records","System evidence: Brain Fleet, generality evidence, and advanced proof labs"],"superiorityBoundary":"KELLY should be called better only where its scorecards, calibration, replay receipts, and source coverage outperform alternatives. This page is built to make that measurable.","sectorEdge":"Shows public policy signals, government spending, election context, and regulatory change pressure."},"uxPatterns":["Citation-forward answer pattern: put sources and proof next to claims.","Forecasting track-record pattern: keep probability, resolution rule, score, and history together.","Watchlist pattern: let users inspect a saved set without writing ground truth.","Alert/status pattern: show what changed, what is stale, and what KELLY is watching."],"researchReferences":[{"name":"TradingView","url":"https://www.tradingview.com/features/","lesson":"Charts, alerts, screeners, replay, multi-chart layouts, and fast command/search patterns make market work feel immediate."},{"name":"Metaculus","url":"https://www.metaculus.com/faq/","lesson":"Forecast questions need clear resolution rules, track records, scoring, calibration, and aggregation history."},{"name":"Windy / Windy.app","url":"https://windy.app/","lesson":"Weather users need maps, layers, local points, alerts, history, model comparison, and fast location context."},{"name":"Perplexity","url":"https://www.perplexity.ai/help-center/en/articles/10352895-how-does-perplexity-work.html","lesson":"Answer users expect citations beside claims, follow-up context, and checkable source trails."}],"liveStatus":{"state":"warming_specialized_read_only","sourcePresentCount":3,"sourceCount":4,"brainFleetHealthy":4,"visibleAuthorityRows":0,"generatedHypotheses":0,"realityClosures":0,"marketFeedAvailable":null},"sources":[{"id":"federal-register","label":"Federal Register","cost":"free_no_key","keyName":null,"present":true,"note":"Official U.S. rules, proposed rules, notices, and executive documents."},{"id":"usaspending","label":"USAspending","cost":"free_no_key","keyName":null,"present":true,"note":"Federal spending obligations and awards."},{"id":"fec","label":"FEC","cost":"free_key","keyName":"FEC_API_KEY","present":false,"note":"Campaign finance records and committee/candidate signals."},{"id":"datausa","label":"Data USA","cost":"free_no_key","keyName":null,"present":true,"note":"U.S. demographic and economic context."}],"forecastMethod":["Approved source intake only","Tag source, freshness, domain, and authority","The Book of Why: ask what caused the change, what would have happened otherwise, and what evidence can falsify the causal story","Thinking in Systems: map feedback loops, delays, stocks, flows, constraints, and downstream effects","Thinking, Fast and Slow: separate fast pattern recognition from slower deliberate verification","Superforecasting: start with base rates, update incrementally, keep probabilities explicit, and score the forecast later","Thinking in Bets: treat every forecast as a wager against reality with a clear settlement rule","Build causal pressure nodes and forecast cones","Separate KELLY forecast from user forecast","Track falsifiers, uncertainty, and competing explanations","Close against reality","Score calibration and error direction","Apply continuous micro-adjustments after settlement to improve future accuracy","Create replayable memory evidence when eligible"],"proofSurfaces":{"authorityIndex":"/authority-index","competitiveProofLabs":"/advanced-proof-labs","agiReadiness":"/generality-evidence","brainFleet":"/api/brain-fleet","templates":"/api/sector-labs","marketSummary":null},"metrics":{"visibleCells":0,"authorityCoverage":null,"readinessScore":0,"brainFleetHealthy":4,"sourcePresentCount":3,"sourceCount":4},"marketSummary":null,"boundary":{"readOnly":true,"publicUserWriteAllowed":false,"noAdviceSubstitute":"No legal advice, lobbying instruction, election manipulation, or certainty about political outcomes.","noClaimOfPerfectPrediction":true,"proofRequiredForEveryForecast":true},"proofScore":{"score":64,"grade":"building","sourceCoverage":75,"brainCoverage":100,"authorityVisible":false,"proofSurfaceCoverage":100,"readinessContribution":0,"interpretation":"Score combines source coverage, brain fleet health, visible authority evidence, proof links, readiness map, and doctrine coverage. It is a product proof score, not a promise of forecast accuracy."}}