{"ok":true,"service":"kelly-glass-lab","route":"/api/glass-lab/sector-labs/sports_odds","generatedAt":"2026-07-08T07:17:55.981Z","readOnly":true,"mutationAllowed":false,"publicUserWriteAllowed":false,"id":"sports_odds","title":"Sports Odds Lab","template":{"id":"sports_odds","label":"Sports Odds Lab","shortLabel":"Sports Odds Lab","tagline":"Calibration training against public odds markets.","bestFor":"Showing probability calibration, market disagreement, and outcome settlement.","safeClaim":"Shows implied probability, line dispersion, closing-line movement, and calibration.","blockedClaim":"No betting advice, no arbitrage guarantee, no profitable betting system.","focusLabel":"Pick a sport or team","focusQuestion":"Which sport or team are we checking?","questionLabel":"What sports question are you asking?","responseNode":null,"sourceIds":[],"focusPresets":[{"id":"nba","label":"NBA games","sport":"basketball_nba","team":"","focusType":"league"},{"id":"mlb","label":"MLB games","sport":"baseball_mlb","team":"","focusType":"league"},{"id":"nfl","label":"NFL games","sport":"americanfootball_nfl","team":"","focusType":"league"},{"id":"nhl","label":"NHL games","sport":"icehockey_nhl","team":"","focusType":"league"},{"id":"epl","label":"EPL matches","sport":"soccer_epl","team":"","focusType":"league"}],"questionPresets":[{"id":"win","label":"Win chance","userQuestion":"Is this team likely to win?"},{"id":"upset","label":"Upset risk","userQuestion":"Is there upset risk?"},{"id":"disagreement","label":"Book disagreement","userQuestion":"Are the books disagreeing?"},{"id":"probability","label":"Market probability","userQuestion":"What probability is the market showing?"},{"id":"track","label":"Forecast practice","userQuestion":"How do I score my forecast later?"}],"defaultNodes":["SPORTS:AVG_FAIR_PROB","SPORTS:MARKET_DISPERSION","SPORTS:BOOK_DEPTH","SPORTS:UPSET_RISK","SPORTS:DECISION"],"defaultEdges":["SPORTS:AVG_FAIR_PROB -> SPORTS:DECISION","SPORTS:MARKET_DISPERSION -> SPORTS:UPSET_RISK","SPORTS:UPSET_RISK -> SPORTS:DECISION","SPORTS:BOOK_DEPTH -> SPORTS:DECISION"]},"persona":{"audience":"Forecasters, fans, analysts, and users practicing calibrated probability under uncertainty.","primaryQuestion":"What probability does the market imply, what does KELLY forecast, and who was better after settlement?","method":"Odds conversion, market dispersion, KELLY probability lane, upset/falsifier checks, settlement, Brier-style calibration.","proofPromise":"Every odds view should show implied probability, KELLY probability, market disagreement, outcome, and score.","liveApp":"/sector-labs/sports-odds"},"advantage":{"headline":"Why KELLY can be stronger here","claim":"KELLY is designed to win by being scoreable: every forecast should connect to source evidence, causal assumptions, falsifiers, settlement, calibration, replay, and memory lineage.","whyItMatters":"A forecast platform is only as good as its ability to be wrong in public, adjust from reality, and improve the next forecast without hiding the chain.","whereProofLives":["Source plan: the approved feed rows on this page","Forecast method: the doctrine timeline on this page","Authority evidence: Authority Index and replay receipts","Score evidence: settlement and calibration records","System evidence: Brain Fleet, generality evidence, and advanced proof labs"],"superiorityBoundary":"KELLY should be called better only where its scorecards, calibration, replay receipts, and source coverage outperform alternatives. This page is built to make that measurable.","sectorEdge":"Shows implied probability, line dispersion, closing-line movement, and calibration."},"uxPatterns":["Odds-board pattern: implied probability, market disagreement, closing line, and result all stay attached.","Calibration-practice pattern: compare user probability, KELLY probability, and outcome score.","Citation-forward answer pattern: put sources and proof next to claims.","Forecasting track-record pattern: keep probability, resolution rule, score, and history together.","Watchlist pattern: let users inspect a saved set without writing ground truth.","Alert/status pattern: show what changed, what is stale, and what KELLY is watching."],"researchReferences":[{"name":"TradingView","url":"https://www.tradingview.com/features/","lesson":"Charts, alerts, screeners, replay, multi-chart layouts, and fast command/search patterns make market work feel immediate."},{"name":"Metaculus","url":"https://www.metaculus.com/faq/","lesson":"Forecast questions need clear resolution rules, track records, scoring, calibration, and aggregation history."},{"name":"Windy / Windy.app","url":"https://windy.app/","lesson":"Weather users need maps, layers, local points, alerts, history, model comparison, and fast location context."},{"name":"Perplexity","url":"https://www.perplexity.ai/help-center/en/articles/10352895-how-does-perplexity-work.html","lesson":"Answer users expect citations beside claims, follow-up context, and checkable source trails."}],"liveStatus":{"state":"warming_specialized_read_only","sourcePresentCount":3,"sourceCount":3,"brainFleetHealthy":4,"visibleAuthorityRows":0,"generatedHypotheses":0,"realityClosures":0,"marketFeedAvailable":null},"sources":[{"id":"synthetic-none","label":"No simulated source","cost":"none","keyName":null,"present":true,"note":"The engine can run manual ticks without any external API key."},{"id":"the-odds-api","label":"TheOddsAPI","cost":"free_key_limited","keyName":"THE_ODDS_API_KEY","present":true,"note":"Optional sports odds calibration feed. Poll slowly to preserve free quota."},{"id":"openai","label":"OpenAI","cost":"paid_optional","keyName":"OPENAI_API_KEY","present":true,"note":"Only for narrative phrasing. The proof engine does not require an LLM."}],"forecastMethod":["Approved source intake only","Tag source, freshness, domain, and authority","The Book of Why: ask what caused the change, what would have happened otherwise, and what evidence can falsify the causal story","Thinking in Systems: map feedback loops, delays, stocks, flows, constraints, and downstream effects","Thinking, Fast and Slow: separate fast pattern recognition from slower deliberate verification","Superforecasting: start with base rates, update incrementally, keep probabilities explicit, and score the forecast later","Thinking in Bets: treat every forecast as a wager against reality with a clear settlement rule","Build causal pressure nodes and forecast cones","Separate KELLY forecast from user forecast","Track falsifiers, uncertainty, and competing explanations","Close against reality","Score calibration and error direction","Apply continuous micro-adjustments after settlement to improve future accuracy","Create replayable memory evidence when eligible"],"proofSurfaces":{"authorityIndex":"/authority-index","competitiveProofLabs":"/advanced-proof-labs","agiReadiness":"/generality-evidence","brainFleet":"/api/brain-fleet","templates":"/api/sector-labs","marketSummary":null},"metrics":{"visibleCells":0,"authorityCoverage":null,"readinessScore":0,"brainFleetHealthy":4,"sourcePresentCount":3,"sourceCount":3},"marketSummary":null,"boundary":{"readOnly":true,"publicUserWriteAllowed":false,"noAdviceSubstitute":"No betting advice, no arbitrage guarantee, no profitable betting system.","noClaimOfPerfectPrediction":true,"proofRequiredForEveryForecast":true},"proofScore":{"score":70,"grade":"strong","sourceCoverage":100,"brainCoverage":100,"authorityVisible":false,"proofSurfaceCoverage":100,"readinessContribution":0,"interpretation":"Score combines source coverage, brain fleet health, visible authority evidence, proof links, readiness map, and doctrine coverage. It is a product proof score, not a promise of forecast accuracy."}}