{"ok":true,"service":"kelly-glass-lab","route":"/api/glass-lab/sector-labs/weather_risk","generatedAt":"2026-07-08T07:06:30.546Z","readOnly":true,"mutationAllowed":false,"publicUserWriteAllowed":false,"id":"weather_risk","title":"Weather Risk Lab","template":{"id":"weather_risk","label":"Weather Risk Lab","shortLabel":"Weather Risk Lab","tagline":"The cleanest proof showcase: public observations, shocks, and forecast-vs-actual scoring.","bestFor":"Demonstrating causal hypotheses without financial or betting advice baggage.","safeClaim":"Shows environmental shocks, lag hypotheses, forecast calibration, and observed outcomes.","blockedClaim":"No emergency instruction replacement and no certainty from sparse sensors.","focusLabel":"Pick a location","focusQuestion":"Where should KELLY check rain and weather risk?","questionLabel":"What weather question are you asking?","responseNode":null,"sourceIds":[],"focusPresets":[{"id":"nyc","label":"New York","lat":40.7128,"lon":-74.006,"riskType":"rain and city weather risk"},{"id":"miami","label":"Miami","lat":25.7617,"lon":-80.1918,"riskType":"rain and storm risk"},{"id":"dallas","label":"Dallas","lat":32.7767,"lon":-96.797,"riskType":"storm and heat risk"},{"id":"austin","label":"Austin","lat":30.2672,"lon":-97.7431,"riskType":"storm and heat risk"},{"id":"atlanta","label":"Atlanta","lat":33.749,"lon":-84.388,"riskType":"storm and humidity risk"},{"id":"boston","label":"Boston","lat":42.3601,"lon":-71.0589,"riskType":"coastal weather risk"},{"id":"denver","label":"Denver","lat":39.7392,"lon":-104.9903,"riskType":"hail and storm risk"},{"id":"seattle","label":"Seattle","lat":47.6062,"lon":-122.3321,"riskType":"rain and wind risk"}],"questionPresets":[{"id":"rain","label":"Rain","nodeId":"WEATHER:RAIN_NOW","userQuestion":"Is it going to rain?"},{"id":"snow","label":"Snow","nodeId":"WEATHER:SNOW_NOW","userQuestion":"Is it going to snow?"},{"id":"hail","label":"Hail","nodeId":"WEATHER:HAIL_RISK","userQuestion":"Is hail a risk?"},{"id":"wind","label":"Wind","nodeId":"WEATHER:WIND_SPEED","userQuestion":"Will wind be a problem?"},{"id":"air","label":"Air quality","nodeId":"AQ:PM25","userQuestion":"Is air quality getting worse?"},{"id":"heat","label":"Heat","nodeId":"WEATHER:TEMP_2M","userQuestion":"Is heat a risk?"},{"id":"overall","label":"Overall risk","nodeId":"WEATHER:RISK","userQuestion":"Is weather risk rising?"}],"defaultNodes":["WEATHER:TEMP_2M","WEATHER:HUMIDITY","WEATHER:PRESSURE","WEATHER:WIND_SPEED","WEATHER:WIND_GUST","WEATHER:PRECIP_NOW","WEATHER:RAIN_NOW","WEATHER:SNOW_NOW","WEATHER:HAIL_RISK","AQ:PM25","AQ:PM10","AQ:OBSERVATION_DENSITY"],"defaultEdges":["WEATHER:PRESSURE -> WEATHER:RISK","WEATHER:WIND_SPEED -> WEATHER:RISK","WEATHER:WIND_GUST -> WEATHER:RISK","WEATHER:PRECIP_NOW -> WEATHER:RISK","WEATHER:RAIN_NOW -> WEATHER:RISK","WEATHER:SNOW_NOW -> WEATHER:RISK","WEATHER:HAIL_RISK -> WEATHER:RISK","WEATHER:HUMIDITY -> WEATHER:PRECIP_NOW","AQ:PM25 -> WEATHER:RISK","AQ:PM10 -> WEATHER:RISK","AQ:OBSERVATION_DENSITY -> AQ:PM25"]},"persona":{"audience":"Households, operators, municipalities, insurers, logistics teams, and local users watching weather risk.","primaryQuestion":"What environmental pressure is changing here, and what should KELLY watch until reality closes the loop?","method":"Location, public weather observations, forecast-vs-actual, pressure changes, anomaly history, closure and memory eligibility.","proofPromise":"Every location view should show source time, observed variables, forecast target, closure rule, and replay receipt.","liveApp":"/sector-labs/weather-risk"},"advantage":{"headline":"Why KELLY can be stronger here","claim":"KELLY is designed to win by being scoreable: every forecast should connect to source evidence, causal assumptions, falsifiers, settlement, calibration, replay, and memory lineage.","whyItMatters":"A forecast platform is only as good as its ability to be wrong in public, adjust from reality, and improve the next forecast without hiding the chain.","whereProofLives":["Source plan: the approved feed rows on this page","Forecast method: the doctrine timeline on this page","Authority evidence: Authority Index and replay receipts","Score evidence: settlement and calibration records","System evidence: Brain Fleet, generality evidence, and advanced proof labs"],"superiorityBoundary":"KELLY should be called better only where its scorecards, calibration, replay receipts, and source coverage outperform alternatives. This page is built to make that measurable.","sectorEdge":"Shows environmental shocks, lag hypotheses, forecast calibration, and observed outcomes."},"uxPatterns":["Weather map pattern: layers for rain, wind, temperature, pressure, air quality, and alerts.","Location pattern: local status first, regional context second, historical closure third.","Citation-forward answer pattern: put sources and proof next to claims.","Forecasting track-record pattern: keep probability, resolution rule, score, and history together.","Watchlist pattern: let users inspect a saved set without writing ground truth.","Alert/status pattern: show what changed, what is stale, and what KELLY is watching."],"researchReferences":[{"name":"TradingView","url":"https://www.tradingview.com/features/","lesson":"Charts, alerts, screeners, replay, multi-chart layouts, and fast command/search patterns make market work feel immediate."},{"name":"Metaculus","url":"https://www.metaculus.com/faq/","lesson":"Forecast questions need clear resolution rules, track records, scoring, calibration, and aggregation history."},{"name":"Windy / Windy.app","url":"https://windy.app/","lesson":"Weather users need maps, layers, local points, alerts, history, model comparison, and fast location context."},{"name":"Perplexity","url":"https://www.perplexity.ai/help-center/en/articles/10352895-how-does-perplexity-work.html","lesson":"Answer users expect citations beside claims, follow-up context, and checkable source trails."}],"liveStatus":{"state":"warming_specialized_read_only","sourcePresentCount":7,"sourceCount":7,"brainFleetHealthy":4,"visibleAuthorityRows":0,"generatedHypotheses":0,"realityClosures":0,"marketFeedAvailable":null},"sources":[{"id":"synthetic-none","label":"No simulated source","cost":"none","keyName":null,"present":true,"note":"The engine can run manual ticks without any external API key."},{"id":"open-meteo","label":"Open-Meteo","cost":"free_no_key","keyName":null,"present":true,"note":"Current public weather observations and forecasts. Best default proof demo."},{"id":"open-meteo-air-quality","label":"Open-Meteo Air Quality","cost":"free_no_key","keyName":null,"present":true,"note":"No-key air-quality observations for PM2.5, PM10, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and UV where coverage exists."},{"id":"nws","label":"National Weather Service","cost":"free_no_key","keyName":"NWS_USER_AGENT","present":true,"note":"US forecast grid and alerts. Requires a responsible User-Agent string, not an API token. Outside U.S. coverage returns no coverage."},{"id":"openaq","label":"OpenAQ","cost":"free_key_limited","keyName":"OPENAQ_API_KEY","present":true,"note":"Optional air quality observations. Coverage varies by location."},{"id":"noaa-water","label":"NOAA CO-OPS Water Levels","cost":"free_no_key","keyName":null,"present":true,"note":"Water-level/tide observations when a station is configured."},{"id":"openai","label":"OpenAI","cost":"paid_optional","keyName":"OPENAI_API_KEY","present":true,"note":"Only for narrative phrasing. The proof engine does not require an LLM."}],"forecastMethod":["Approved source intake only","Tag source, freshness, domain, and authority","The Book of Why: ask what caused the change, what would have happened otherwise, and what evidence can falsify the causal story","Thinking in Systems: map feedback loops, delays, stocks, flows, constraints, and downstream effects","Thinking, Fast and Slow: separate fast pattern recognition from slower deliberate verification","Superforecasting: start with base rates, update incrementally, keep probabilities explicit, and score the forecast later","Thinking in Bets: treat every forecast as a wager against reality with a clear settlement rule","Build causal pressure nodes and forecast cones","Separate KELLY forecast from user forecast","Track falsifiers, uncertainty, and competing explanations","Close against reality","Score calibration and error direction","Apply continuous micro-adjustments after settlement to improve future accuracy","Create replayable memory evidence when eligible"],"proofSurfaces":{"authorityIndex":"/authority-index","competitiveProofLabs":"/advanced-proof-labs","agiReadiness":"/generality-evidence","brainFleet":"/api/brain-fleet","templates":"/api/sector-labs","marketSummary":null},"metrics":{"visibleCells":0,"authorityCoverage":null,"readinessScore":0,"brainFleetHealthy":4,"sourcePresentCount":7,"sourceCount":7},"marketSummary":null,"boundary":{"readOnly":true,"publicUserWriteAllowed":false,"noAdviceSubstitute":"No emergency instruction replacement and no certainty from sparse sensors.","noClaimOfPerfectPrediction":true,"proofRequiredForEveryForecast":true},"proofScore":{"score":70,"grade":"strong","sourceCoverage":100,"brainCoverage":100,"authorityVisible":false,"proofSurfaceCoverage":100,"readinessContribution":0,"interpretation":"Score combines source coverage, brain fleet health, visible authority evidence, proof links, readiness map, and doctrine coverage. It is a product proof score, not a promise of forecast accuracy."}}