KELLY probability posture
42.6%
Current proof posture, not a guarantee.
Settlement rule
Reality closes this forecast through the relevant public source update, outcome record, or settlement receipt for this sector.
Evidence supporting this card
evidence5/7 source families wired or available.
evidence0/4 brain fleet health signal.
evidence0 visible authority rows in the current proof window.
evidence100% proof-link coverage.
What could change KELLY's mind
falsifierSource freshness weakens or key feeds become unavailable.
falsifierAuthority/replay links fail to resolve from the proof surface.
falsifierNew public data changes the base rate or causal pressure map.
falsifierSettlement/calibration later scores this lane poorly.
Boundary receipt
{
"readOnly": true,
"publicUserWriteAllowed": false,
"forecastCardIsDecisionSupportNotAdvice": true,
"probabilityIsCurrentProofPostureNotGuaranteedAccuracy": true
}