Weather Risk LabProof dossier

What KELLY is doing in this lab.

A concise read-only proof story for Weather Risk Lab: what KELLY sees, how it forecasts, what could change its mind, and where the proof lives.

score 43earlyread onlyreceipts linked

Proof story

1Weather Risk Lab is a read-only KELLY lens for Households, operators, municipalities, insurers, logistics teams, and local users watching weather risk.
2KELLY is designed to win by being scoreable: every forecast should connect to source evidence, causal assumptions, falsifiers, settlement, calibration, replay, and memory lineage.
3Current proof score is 43/100 (early).
4The lab currently has 5/7 source families wired or available and 0 visible authority rows.
5Every location view should show source time, observed variables, forecast target, closure rule, and replay receipt.

What KELLY sees

What environmental pressure is changing here, and what should KELLY watch until reality closes the loop?

sourceNo simulated source: wired
sourceOpen-Meteo: wired
sourceOpen-Meteo Air Quality: wired
sourceNational Weather Service: available
sourceOpenAQ: available
sourceNOAA CO-OPS Water Levels: wired
sourceOpenAI: wired

How KELLY forecasts here

1Approved source intake only
2Tag source, freshness, domain, and authority
3The Book of Why: ask what caused the change, what would have happened otherwise, and what evidence can falsify the causal story
4Thinking in Systems: map feedback loops, delays, stocks, flows, constraints, and downstream effects
5Thinking, Fast and Slow: separate fast pattern recognition from slower deliberate verification
6Superforecasting: start with base rates, update incrementally, keep probabilities explicit, and score the forecast later
7Thinking in Bets: treat every forecast as a wager against reality with a clear settlement rule
8Build causal pressure nodes and forecast cones
9Separate KELLY forecast from user forecast
10Track falsifiers, uncertainty, and competing explanations
11Close against reality
12Score calibration and error direction
13Apply continuous micro-adjustments after settlement to improve future accuracy
14Create replayable memory evidence when eligible

What could change KELLY's mind

falsifierSource coverage drops below current 5/7.
falsifierBrain fleet health drops below quorum from current 0/4.
falsifierAuthority evidence or replay receipts fail to link from the lab proof surface.
falsifierSettlement and calibration records contradict the current forecast posture.
falsifierFresh reality data changes the base rate or causal pressure map.

Proof links

authorityIndexcompetitiveProofLabsagiReadinessbrainFleettemplates

Next useful upgrade

Score combines source coverage, brain fleet health, visible authority evidence, proof links, readiness map, and doctrine coverage. It is a product proof score, not a promise of forecast accuracy.

Causal map in this lab

WEATHER:TEMP_2MWEATHER:HUMIDITYWEATHER:PRESSUREWEATHER:WIND_SPEEDWEATHER:WIND_GUSTWEATHER:PRECIP_NOWWEATHER:RAIN_NOWWEATHER:SNOW_NOWWEATHER:HAIL_RISKAQ:PM25AQ:PM10AQ:OBSERVATION_DENSITY
causal linkWEATHER:PRESSURE -> WEATHER:RISK
causal linkWEATHER:WIND_SPEED -> WEATHER:RISK
causal linkWEATHER:WIND_GUST -> WEATHER:RISK
causal linkWEATHER:PRECIP_NOW -> WEATHER:RISK
causal linkWEATHER:RAIN_NOW -> WEATHER:RISK
causal linkWEATHER:SNOW_NOW -> WEATHER:RISK
causal linkWEATHER:HAIL_RISK -> WEATHER:RISK
causal linkWEATHER:HUMIDITY -> WEATHER:PRECIP_NOW
causal linkAQ:PM25 -> WEATHER:RISK
causal linkAQ:PM10 -> WEATHER:RISK
causal linkAQ:OBSERVATION_DENSITY -> AQ:PM25

Boundary receipt

{
  "readOnly": true,
  "publicUserWriteAllowed": false,
  "noAdviceSubstitute": "No emergency instruction replacement and no certainty from sparse sensors.",
  "noClaimOfPerfectPrediction": true,
  "proofRequiredForEveryForecast": true
}