Company Events LabSpecialized read-only forecast lens

Public filing events separated from market reaction.

Founders, analysts, procurement teams, investors, and anyone tracking public-company event risk. What public event changed, what might it cause, and what evidence would separate signal from noise?

warming_specialized_read_onlysources 1/2brain fleet 0/4read only

Why KELLY can be stronger here

KELLY is designed to win by being scoreable: every forecast should connect to source evidence, causal assumptions, falsifiers, settlement, calibration, replay, and memory lineage.

why it mattersA forecast platform is only as good as its ability to be wrong in public, adjust from reality, and improve the next forecast without hiding the chain.
sector edgeShows recent filing volume, material-event pressure, and filing recency.
best claim boundaryKELLY should be called better only where its scorecards, calibration, replay receipts, and source coverage outperform alternatives. This page is built to make that measurable.

Where the proof lives

proofSource plan: the approved feed rows on this page
proofForecast method: the doctrine timeline on this page
proofAuthority evidence: Authority Index and replay receipts
proofScore evidence: settlement and calibration records
proofSystem evidence: Brain Fleet, generality evidence, and advanced proof labs

Professional layout pattern

The lab layout follows successful product patterns: fast first read, watchable objects, citations beside claims, source freshness, score history, and direct proof links.

patternCitation-forward answer pattern: put sources and proof next to claims.
patternForecasting track-record pattern: keep probability, resolution rule, score, and history together.
patternWatchlist pattern: let users inspect a saved set without writing ground truth.
patternAlert/status pattern: show what changed, what is stale, and what KELLY is watching.

Research references

TradingViewCharts, alerts, screeners, replay, multi-chart layouts, and fast command/search patterns make market work feel immediate.
MetaculusForecast questions need clear resolution rules, track records, scoring, calibration, and aggregation history.
Windy / Windy.appWeather users need maps, layers, local points, alerts, history, model comparison, and fast location context.
PerplexityAnswer users expect citations beside claims, follow-up context, and checkable source trails.

KELLY's specialized forecast method

Filing/event intake, materiality pressure, reaction separation, causal hypothesis, settlement, memory lineage.

1Approved source intake only
2Tag source, freshness, domain, and authority
3The Book of Why: ask what caused the change, what would have happened otherwise, and what evidence can falsify the causal story
4Thinking in Systems: map feedback loops, delays, stocks, flows, constraints, and downstream effects
5Thinking, Fast and Slow: separate fast pattern recognition from slower deliberate verification
6Superforecasting: start with base rates, update incrementally, keep probabilities explicit, and score the forecast later
7Thinking in Bets: treat every forecast as a wager against reality with a clear settlement rule
8Build causal pressure nodes and forecast cones
9Separate KELLY forecast from user forecast
10Track falsifiers, uncertainty, and competing explanations
11Close against reality
12Score calibration and error direction
13Apply continuous micro-adjustments after settlement to improve future accuracy
14Create replayable memory evidence when eligible

What this lab is for

Showing event memory for companies without claiming price causality.

safe claimShows recent filing volume, material-event pressure, and filing recency.
boundaryNo claim that a filing caused a price move unless later tests support it.

Live proof status

proof score38 / early
visible cells0
readiness score0%
sources wired1/2
public writesblocked

Proof links

authorityIndexcompetitiveProofLabsagiReadinessbrainFleettemplates

Every company view should show filing source, event type, causal claim boundary, and later outcome check.

Approved source plan

sourcestatuscostrole
SEC EDGAR
sec-edgar		 available free_no_key Company filing metadata. Requires a responsible User-Agent string, not an API token.
OpenAI
openai		 wired paid_optional Only for narrative phrasing. The proof engine does not require an LLM.

User questions this lab can inspect

question laneplain questionnode
New filings Have new filings appeared? COMPANY:FILING_COUNT
Material events Are material events rising? COMPANY:MATERIAL_EVENT
Recency How recent are the events? COMPANY:FILING_RECENCY
Market reaction Did the market reaction diverge from the event? COMPANY:REACTION_GAP
Overall risk Is company event risk rising? COMPANY:RISK

Default focuses

focusmeaningcontext
Apple AAPL
Nvidia NVDA
Tesla TSLA
Microsoft MSFT
Amazon AMZN
Blue Owl Capital OWL

Causal pressure map

COMPANY:FILING_COUNTCOMPANY:MATERIAL_EVENTCOMPANY:FILING_RECENCYCOMPANY:REACTION_GAPCOMPANY:RISK
causal linkCOMPANY:FILING_COUNT -> COMPANY:RISK
causal linkCOMPANY:MATERIAL_EVENT -> COMPANY:RISK
causal linkCOMPANY:FILING_RECENCY -> COMPANY:RISK
causal linkCOMPANY:REACTION_GAP -> COMPANY:RISK

Boundary receipt

{
  "readOnly": true,
  "publicUserWriteAllowed": false,
  "noAdviceSubstitute": "No claim that a filing caused a price move unless later tests support it.",
  "noClaimOfPerfectPrediction": true,
  "proofRequiredForEveryForecast": true
}