Why KELLY can be stronger here
KELLY is designed to win by being scoreable: every forecast should connect to source evidence, causal assumptions, falsifiers, settlement, calibration, replay, and memory lineage.
why it mattersA forecast platform is only as good as its ability to be wrong in public, adjust from reality, and improve the next forecast without hiding the chain.
sector edgeShows earthquake, water-level, alert, and wildfire signals when public feeds are available.
best claim boundaryKELLY should be called better only where its scorecards, calibration, replay receipts, and source coverage outperform alternatives. This page is built to make that measurable.
Where the proof lives
proofSource plan: the approved feed rows on this page
proofForecast method: the doctrine timeline on this page
proofAuthority evidence: Authority Index and replay receipts
proofScore evidence: settlement and calibration records
proofSystem evidence: Brain Fleet, generality evidence, and advanced proof labs
Professional layout pattern
The lab layout follows successful product patterns: fast first read, watchable objects, citations beside claims, source freshness, score history, and direct proof links.
patternHazard operations pattern: map, official alerts, event timeline, and uncertainty band stay visible.
patternPreparedness pattern: show signals and boundaries without replacing emergency authorities.
patternCitation-forward answer pattern: put sources and proof next to claims.
patternForecasting track-record pattern: keep probability, resolution rule, score, and history together.
patternWatchlist pattern: let users inspect a saved set without writing ground truth.
patternAlert/status pattern: show what changed, what is stale, and what KELLY is watching.
Research references
TradingViewCharts, alerts, screeners, replay, multi-chart layouts, and fast command/search patterns make market work feel immediate. MetaculusForecast questions need clear resolution rules, track records, scoring, calibration, and aggregation history. Windy / Windy.appWeather users need maps, layers, local points, alerts, history, model comparison, and fast location context. PerplexityAnswer users expect citations beside claims, follow-up context, and checkable source trails.
KELLY's specialized forecast method
Earthquake, water-level, wildfire, official alert, and geospatial context joined into bounded risk hypotheses.
1Approved source intake only
2Tag source, freshness, domain, and authority
3The Book of Why: ask what caused the change, what would have happened otherwise, and what evidence can falsify the causal story
4Thinking in Systems: map feedback loops, delays, stocks, flows, constraints, and downstream effects
5Thinking, Fast and Slow: separate fast pattern recognition from slower deliberate verification
6Superforecasting: start with base rates, update incrementally, keep probabilities explicit, and score the forecast later
7Thinking in Bets: treat every forecast as a wager against reality with a clear settlement rule
8Build causal pressure nodes and forecast cones
9Separate KELLY forecast from user forecast
10Track falsifiers, uncertainty, and competing explanations
11Close against reality
12Score calibration and error direction
13Apply continuous micro-adjustments after settlement to improve future accuracy
14Create replayable memory evidence when eligible
What this lab is for
Showing shock detection, location-aware alerts, and source-of-truth boundaries.
safe claimShows earthquake, water-level, alert, and wildfire signals when public feeds are available.
boundaryNo emergency guidance, no evacuation instruction, and no certainty from sparse sensors.
Live proof status
proof score40 / early
visible cells0
readiness score0%
sources wired3/5
public writesblocked
Proof links
Every disaster view should show official source, location, risk node, freshness, and post-event closure.
Approved source plan
| source | status | cost | role |
|---|
National Weather Service
nws |
available |
free_no_key |
US forecast grid and alerts. Requires a responsible User-Agent string, not an API token. Outside U.S. coverage returns no coverage. |
USGS Earthquake Feeds
usgs-earthquakes |
wired |
free_no_key |
Real earthquake event feed. Good for shock/event learning and disaster template demos. |
NOAA CO-OPS Water Levels
noaa-water |
wired |
free_no_key |
Water-level/tide observations when a station is configured. |
NASA FIRMS
nasa-firms |
available |
free_key |
Wildfire hotspot feed. Optional key-based environmental shock source. |
OpenAI
openai |
wired |
paid_optional |
Only for narrative phrasing. The proof engine does not require an LLM. |
User questions this lab can inspect
| question lane | plain question | node |
|---|
| Earthquake |
Have nearby earthquakes changed risk? |
DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_PRESSURE |
| Official alerts |
Are official hazard alerts rising? |
DISASTER:OFFICIAL_ALERTS |
| Water level |
Is coastal water pressure rising? |
DISASTER:WATER_LEVEL |
| Wildfire |
Are wildfire hotspots rising? |
DISASTER:FIRE_HOTSPOTS |
| Overall risk |
Is overall hazard risk rising? |
DISASTER:RISK |
Default focuses
| focus | meaning | context |
|---|
| San Francisco |
earthquake and coastal risk |
37.7749, -122.4194 |
| Los Angeles |
earthquake and wildfire risk |
34.0522, -118.2437 |
| Miami |
coastal water and storm risk |
25.7617, -80.1918 |
| Seattle |
earthquake and coastal risk |
47.6062, -122.3321 |
| Anchorage |
earthquake and coastal risk |
61.2181, -149.9003 |
Causal pressure map
DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_MAGDISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_RECENCYDISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_DEPTH_RISKDISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_PRESSUREDISASTER:OFFICIAL_ALERTSDISASTER:WATER_LEVELDISASTER:FIRE_HOTSPOTSDISASTER:RISK
causal linkDISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_MAG -> DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_PRESSURE
causal linkDISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_RECENCY -> DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_PRESSURE
causal linkDISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_DEPTH_RISK -> DISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_PRESSURE
causal linkDISASTER:EARTHQUAKE_PRESSURE -> DISASTER:RISK
causal linkDISASTER:OFFICIAL_ALERTS -> DISASTER:RISK
causal linkDISASTER:WATER_LEVEL -> DISASTER:RISK
causal linkDISASTER:FIRE_HOTSPOTS -> DISASTER:RISK
Boundary receipt
{
"readOnly": true,
"publicUserWriteAllowed": false,
"noAdviceSubstitute": "No emergency guidance, no evacuation instruction, and no certainty from sparse sensors.",
"noClaimOfPerfectPrediction": true,
"proofRequiredForEveryForecast": true
}