Macro Pressure LabSpecialized read-only forecast lens

Slow public economic signals explained as pressure, not predictions.

Analysts, business owners, investors, policy watchers, and users who need slow-signal economic context. Which macro pressures are changing, and what historical reference class does KELLY use?

warming_specialized_read_onlysources 2/6brain fleet 0/4read only

Why KELLY can be stronger here

KELLY is designed to win by being scoreable: every forecast should connect to source evidence, causal assumptions, falsifiers, settlement, calibration, replay, and memory lineage.

why it mattersA forecast platform is only as good as its ability to be wrong in public, adjust from reality, and improve the next forecast without hiding the chain.
sector edgeShows inflation, labor, rates, growth, and energy pressure from public macro feeds.
best claim boundaryKELLY should be called better only where its scorecards, calibration, replay receipts, and source coverage outperform alternatives. This page is built to make that measurable.

Where the proof lives

proofSource plan: the approved feed rows on this page
proofForecast method: the doctrine timeline on this page
proofAuthority evidence: Authority Index and replay receipts
proofScore evidence: settlement and calibration records
proofSystem evidence: Brain Fleet, generality evidence, and advanced proof labs

Professional layout pattern

The lab layout follows successful product patterns: fast first read, watchable objects, citations beside claims, source freshness, score history, and direct proof links.

patternEconomic terminal pattern: series, observation date, revision risk, and lagged effects stay visible.
patternScenario pattern: base rate, upside/downside, falsifiers, and next data release are explicit.
patternCitation-forward answer pattern: put sources and proof next to claims.
patternForecasting track-record pattern: keep probability, resolution rule, score, and history together.
patternWatchlist pattern: let users inspect a saved set without writing ground truth.
patternAlert/status pattern: show what changed, what is stale, and what KELLY is watching.

Research references

TradingViewCharts, alerts, screeners, replay, multi-chart layouts, and fast command/search patterns make market work feel immediate.
MetaculusForecast questions need clear resolution rules, track records, scoring, calibration, and aggregation history.
Windy / Windy.appWeather users need maps, layers, local points, alerts, history, model comparison, and fast location context.
PerplexityAnswer users expect citations beside claims, follow-up context, and checkable source trails.

KELLY's specialized forecast method

Public economic time series, pressure nodes, lagged effects, historical base rates, scenario lanes, closure when data updates.

1Approved source intake only
2Tag source, freshness, domain, and authority
3The Book of Why: ask what caused the change, what would have happened otherwise, and what evidence can falsify the causal story
4Thinking in Systems: map feedback loops, delays, stocks, flows, constraints, and downstream effects
5Thinking, Fast and Slow: separate fast pattern recognition from slower deliberate verification
6Superforecasting: start with base rates, update incrementally, keep probabilities explicit, and score the forecast later
7Thinking in Bets: treat every forecast as a wager against reality with a clear settlement rule
8Build causal pressure nodes and forecast cones
9Separate KELLY forecast from user forecast
10Track falsifiers, uncertainty, and competing explanations
11Close against reality
12Score calibration and error direction
13Apply continuous micro-adjustments after settlement to improve future accuracy
14Create replayable memory evidence when eligible

What this lab is for

Showing reference-class learning across economies without trading advice.

safe claimShows inflation, labor, rates, growth, and energy pressure from public macro feeds.
boundaryNo recession certainty, no policy prediction, no trade instruction.

Live proof status

proof score33 / early
visible cells0
readiness score0%
sources wired2/6
public writesblocked

Proof links

authorityIndexcompetitiveProofLabsagiReadinessbrainFleettemplates

Every macro view should show series id, observation date, source authority, pressure change, and calibration trail.

Approved source plan

sourcestatuscostrole
World Bank Indicators
world-bank		 wired free_no_key No-key country macro indicators. Slow-moving context, not a live trading signal.
BLS Public Data API
bls		 available free_limited Labor and CPI time series. Key is optional for this showcase; public no-key calls are rate limited.
FRED
fred		 available free_key Federal Reserve economic time series. Requires a free API key.
EIA
eia		 available free_key Energy price/inventory pressure. Optional key-based macro feed.
Nasdaq Data Link
nasdaq-data-link		 available free_key Quandl/Nasdaq Data Link financial and FRED macro series. Set QUANDL_API_KEY or NASDAQ_DATA_API_KEY.
OpenAI
openai		 wired paid_optional Only for narrative phrasing. The proof engine does not require an LLM.

User questions this lab can inspect

question laneplain questionnode
Inflation Is inflation pressure rising? MACRO:INFLATION
Jobs Is labor pressure rising? MACRO:UNEMPLOYMENT
Rates Are rates pressuring the system? MACRO:RATES
Growth Is growth weakening? MACRO:GDP_GROWTH
Energy Is energy pressure rising? MACRO:ENERGY_PRESSURE
Fed total assets What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve? MACRO:FED_TOTAL_ASSETS
Coal capacity (GEM) What will be the net change in coal-fired power capacity according to GEM? MACRO:COAL_CAPACITY_CHANGE
FAO Cereals Index What will be the FAO Cereals Price Index? MACRO:FAO_CEREALS_PRICE_INDEX

Default focuses

focusmeaningcontext
United States US
China CN
Canada CA
United Kingdom GB
Germany DE
Japan JP

Causal pressure map

MACRO:INFLATIONMACRO:UNEMPLOYMENTMACRO:RATESMACRO:GDP_GROWTHMACRO:ENERGY_PRESSUREMACRO:FED_TOTAL_ASSETSMACRO:COAL_CAPACITY_CHANGEMACRO:FAO_CEREALS_PRICE_INDEXMACRO:US_FY_FEDERAL_OUTLAYSMACRO:RISK
causal linkMACRO:INFLATION -> MACRO:RISK
causal linkMACRO:UNEMPLOYMENT -> MACRO:RISK
causal linkMACRO:RATES -> MACRO:RISK
causal linkMACRO:GDP_GROWTH -> MACRO:RISK
causal linkMACRO:ENERGY_PRESSURE -> MACRO:INFLATION
causal linkMACRO:FED_TOTAL_ASSETS -> MACRO:RATES
causal linkMACRO:COAL_CAPACITY_CHANGE -> MACRO:ENERGY_PRESSURE

Boundary receipt

{
  "readOnly": true,
  "publicUserWriteAllowed": false,
  "noAdviceSubstitute": "No recession certainty, no policy prediction, no trade instruction.",
  "noClaimOfPerfectPrediction": true,
  "proofRequiredForEveryForecast": true
}