Markets LabSpecialized read-only forecast lens

Decision support with proof-of-edge boundaries.

Investors, analysts, founders, and everyday users who want transparent market decision support. What does KELLY forecast next, what could make it wrong, and how will reality score it?

warming_specialized_read_onlysources 4/9brain fleet 0/4read only

Why KELLY can be stronger here

KELLY is designed to win by being scoreable: every forecast should connect to source evidence, causal assumptions, falsifiers, settlement, calibration, replay, and memory lineage.

why it mattersA forecast platform is only as good as its ability to be wrong in public, adjust from reality, and improve the next forecast without hiding the chain.
sector edgeShows transparent market decisions, uncertainty, falsifiers, and measured track record.
best claim boundaryKELLY should be called better only where its scorecards, calibration, replay receipts, and source coverage outperform alternatives. This page is built to make that measurable.

Where the proof lives

proofSource plan: the approved feed rows on this page
proofForecast method: the doctrine timeline on this page
proofAuthority evidence: Authority Index and replay receipts
proofScore evidence: settlement and calibration records
proofSystem evidence: Brain Fleet, generality evidence, and advanced proof labs

Professional layout pattern

The lab layout follows successful product patterns: fast first read, watchable objects, citations beside claims, source freshness, score history, and direct proof links.

patternMarket workstation pattern: symbol switching, watchlist, chart layers, and paper P&L need to be one glance away.
patternScreener pattern: rank assets by conditions, then inspect the chain for one symbol.
patternCitation-forward answer pattern: put sources and proof next to claims.
patternForecasting track-record pattern: keep probability, resolution rule, score, and history together.
patternWatchlist pattern: let users inspect a saved set without writing ground truth.
patternAlert/status pattern: show what changed, what is stale, and what KELLY is watching.

Research references

TradingViewCharts, alerts, screeners, replay, multi-chart layouts, and fast command/search patterns make market work feel immediate.
MetaculusForecast questions need clear resolution rules, track records, scoring, calibration, and aggregation history.
Windy / Windy.appWeather users need maps, layers, local points, alerts, history, model comparison, and fast location context.
PerplexityAnswer users expect citations beside claims, follow-up context, and checkable source trails.

KELLY's specialized forecast method

Price history, macro pressure, event context, sentiment/noise separation, forecast cone, paper P&L, settlement, calibration.

1Approved source intake only
2Tag source, freshness, domain, and authority
3The Book of Why: ask what caused the change, what would have happened otherwise, and what evidence can falsify the causal story
4Thinking in Systems: map feedback loops, delays, stocks, flows, constraints, and downstream effects
5Thinking, Fast and Slow: separate fast pattern recognition from slower deliberate verification
6Superforecasting: start with base rates, update incrementally, keep probabilities explicit, and score the forecast later
7Thinking in Bets: treat every forecast as a wager against reality with a clear settlement rule
8Build causal pressure nodes and forecast cones
9Separate KELLY forecast from user forecast
10Track falsifiers, uncertainty, and competing explanations
11Close against reality
12Score calibration and error direction
13Apply continuous micro-adjustments after settlement to improve future accuracy
14Create replayable memory evidence when eligible

What this lab is for

Current Causalea/KELLY product.

safe claimShows transparent market decisions, uncertainty, falsifiers, and measured track record.
boundaryNo financial advice, no guaranteed profit, no causal truth from price correlation alone.

Live proof status

proof score36 / early
visible cells0
readiness score0%
sources wired4/9
public writesblocked

Proof links

authorityIndexcompetitiveProofLabsagiReadinessbrainFleettemplatesmarketSummary

Every useful market view should attach source snapshots, forecast receipt, settlement rule, and calibration trail.

Approved source plan

sourcestatuscostrole
No simulated source
synthetic-none		 wired none The engine can run manual ticks without any external API key.
Yahoo public chart
yahoo-chart		 wired free_no_key Free public chart endpoint used as the default Markets Lab feed.
Finnhub paid overlay
finnhub		 available paid_optional Optional only. The free key can expire or be too limited; Markets Lab does not depend on it.
SEC EDGAR
sec-edgar		 available free_no_key Company filing metadata. Requires a responsible User-Agent string, not an API token.
FRED
fred		 available free_key Federal Reserve economic time series. Requires a free API key.
CoinGecko
coingecko		 available free_limited Crypto price and 24-hour change. Demo key is optional; public access is rate limited.
Stooq
stooq		 wired free_no_key Free market CSV backup for equities and ETFs when symbol mapping is available.
Nasdaq Data Link
nasdaq-data-link		 available free_key Quandl/Nasdaq Data Link financial and FRED macro series. Set QUANDL_API_KEY or NASDAQ_DATA_API_KEY.
OpenAI
openai		 wired paid_optional Only for narrative phrasing. The proof engine does not require an LLM.

User questions this lab can inspect

question laneplain questionnode
Buy Should I buy it? forecast-lane
Sell Should I sell it? forecast-lane
Wait Should I wait? forecast-lane
Next close What is KELLY's next end-of-day forecast? forecast-lane
Market cap What will be the closing market capitalization? MARKET:OWL:MARKET_CAP
Risk check What could go wrong? forecast-lane
Can I trust it? Can I trust this yet? forecast-lane

Default focuses

focusmeaningcontext
Apple AAPL stock
Nvidia NVDA stock
Tesla TSLA stock
Microsoft MSFT stock
Amazon AMZN stock
Meta META stock
Blue Owl Capital OWL stock
S&P 500 ETF SPY etf

Causal pressure map

MOMENTUMVOLUMESENTIMENTMACRORISKDECISION
causal linkMOMENTUM -> DECISION
causal linkVOLUME -> MOMENTUM
causal linkSENTIMENT -> DECISION
causal linkMACRO -> RISK
causal linkRISK -> DECISION

Boundary receipt

{
  "readOnly": true,
  "publicUserWriteAllowed": false,
  "noAdviceSubstitute": "No financial advice, no guaranteed profit, no causal truth from price correlation alone.",
  "noClaimOfPerfectPrediction": true,
  "proofRequiredForEveryForecast": true
}